*Originally published on 12th May 2020*
Player Churn refers to signing a player and then having that player leave your club by the end of the same transfer window the following year, for whatever reason. An example of Player Churn would be John Smith signing for a club in December 2019 during the transfer window before the start of the 2020 season. John Smith then leaves the club in November 2020 during the transfer window before the 2021 season.
Don’t get me wrong, there are many players that do a good job for a season or part of a season and help a club achieve their aim. I’m reminded of a player who helped numerous clubs gain promotion from the English Conference into the Football League and then left to stay in the Conference because he would be paid better when goal bonuses were taken into account. There are others who come in to shore up a defence and help clubs avoid relegation or, bulk up a squad competing in multiple competitions. But that’s not what I’m talking about here.
I’ve been watching the Malaysian Super League on and off for more than a decade now; since my unsuccessful stint with Selangor back in 2007. The thing that I could never truly understand was the amount of Foreign Player Churn that happens to almost every squad. Super League teams can sign 5 foreigners per season: 3 from anywhere, 1 AFC foreigner and 1 from the South East Asian region. Look at 2 consecutive transfer windows in Malaysia and you’ll see the same foreigner signed and released, for whatever reason. On the odd occasion you’ll see a player signed and moved on during the same transfer window a la Aaron Ñiguez with JDT at the start of the 2019 season.
Foreigners come and go with such regularity that the make up of the squad’s dynamic and personality changes too often to get real cohesion. I looked at the transfers of each Super League club from the transfer window before the 2019 season up to the window that closed in March of this year (The table attached below this paragraph). The 3 transfer windows saw 96 foreigners registered into the league and 95 foreigners go out. 46 of the 96 that came in, left. A Churn Rate of 44%. On average, 3.8 Foreigner Players were churned by clubs in the observed time. Remember, Super League clubs can only have 5 foreign players registered.* Clubs averaged 8 Foreign Player signings across the three windows.
My experience as a player and coach told me these numbers were high but I wanted to try and put them in context; so, I looked back home to the Scottish Premiership. Both leagues are the top tier in their nations, both have 12 teams, both sets of clubs rely heavily on free transfers and 1 season contracts. The key difference is that SPL teams don’t have set Foreign Player quotas so, for this comparison I denoted any player signing a permanent deal with a club in the SPL that wasn’t Scottish as a foreigner.
The last three transfer windows in Scotland saw a total of 97 Foreign Player transfers (compared to the 96 of the Malaysian teams). From those 97 players, 19 were churned. A stark difference between the leagues of 19.5% in Scotland to 44.6% in Malaysia. Both sets of clubs signed an average of 8 players. This turnover of players in Malaysia must lead to more unstable squad environments (Although let’s not get started on the current instability of Scottish football).
I don’t think it’s coincidence that 2 of the top 4 clubs in the Player Churn table were relegated from the Super League at the end of the 2019 season. The counterpoint to that would be Terengganu finishing 7th sandwiched between Melaka and PJ City in the league table whilst having the lowest rate of turnover in the entire league. Wouldn’t lower turnover equate to higher league position? Not exactly. The idea is that Player Churn sustained over a longer period of time would create an almost constant instability and therefore harm performance. Taking a snapshot of just over 12 months discounts the internal and behind the scenes factors that those outside the club don’t know about but, it is an indicator of instability.
What is the reason for this Churn Rate? I’ve heard and read Steve Darby (a coach with a mountain of experience in SEA) say that foreigners coming in must be better than the local players both on and off the field. This is something I agree with and I’m sure all the Super League clubs would too but, there seems to be a problem between the theory and real world application of recruiting foreigners.
As a player, I never got to the highest level when playing and have seen personally how clubs at lower levels piece together information on players via former teammates, coaches and agents. Sometimes they have clips on YouTube and if you’re lucky, you might get some of their season stats from previous clubs. That’s not good enough for clubs pushing for promotion, titles or who are performing on a continental scale.
It was this disconnect that led me to create Football ConneXions, a platform for clubs to buy scouting reports on potential targets at affordable prices. Linking data and footage tailor made to a club’s specific needs is an approach I believe can lead to a reduction in Player Churn. Lower turnover rates are a good thing for both players and clubs. Players finding clubs that they suit and suit them is mutually beneficial. It will benefit player’s careers by creating more stability, help clubs plan better for the future, reduce payout fees, keep scouting and recruitment costs to a minimum and help develop a database of players for future reference if they choose not to sign them.
Have a look at the league you follow, or even your own team, and check the rates of Player Churn, are the more stable clubs the ones with the lowest turnover?
An example Comparison report can be found on my LinkedIn profile which was created for a club in South East Asia.
*Mention must be given to Selangor player Rufino Segovia who was deregistered in the second transfer window of 2019 due to injury and re-registered for the start of the 2020 season.